In the Kickstart video at the start of the North American session, I highlighted how the EURUSD was bouncing from targeted support near the 1.1500 level. At the time, the pair had also moved back above its 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 5-minute chart, a positive technical development. However, for buyers to gain additional control, the price needed to break above both the 38.2% retracement and the 50% retracement of the decline from Friday’s high. Those key resistance levels came in between 1.1554 and 1.15714 (see the video here).
While the pair managed to remain above the short-term moving averages, it could not generate enough momentum to push through the first hurdle. The high price today reached 1.1554, stalling precisely at the 38.2% retracement level before rotating back lower.
The subsequent pullback has been relatively modest, allowing the key moving averages on the 5-minute chart to move back into focus. The 100-bar moving average at 1.15362 is currently providing support, while the 200-bar moving average at 1.15294 sits just below. As a result, the market is now caught in a battle between buyers defending the moving averages and sellers leaning against the 38.2% retracement level.
Admittedly, the range is narrow, but these are the levels traders are using to define risk and determine short-term direction. A move above 1.1554 would increase the bullish bias and shift attention toward the 50% retracement at 1.15714. Conversely, a break below the 100- and 200-bar moving averages would tilt the bias back to the downside and give sellers more control.
For now, the next meaningful move is likely to come from a break of either the resistance at the 38.2% retracement or the support provided by the converging moving averages below.
