- Prior +1.7%
- Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.2% y/y expected
- Prior +2.2%
Well, this sort of reading won’t do well to ease the nerves amid the US-Iran situation. Amid fears of a temporary spike in inflation pressures, market players have even started to weigh up a rate hike by the ECB before the end of this year. Traders priced that at a probability of around 25% before the inflation numbers.
And with price pressures keeping more stubborn now, the balance of the scales looks to have firmly shifted to the other side. That being markets are instead having to anticipate when the ECB will have to raise interest rates instead of reducing them next.
It will be interesting to see what policymakers make of the latest data alongside the higher energy price developments in the weeks ahead. Will the ECB start to shift gears to a more hawkish leaning? I doubt it though.
At most, we are likely to see policymakers play it cool in keeping the status quo. They are likely to reaffirm that they are in no rush to adjust monetary policy and that they will need time in assessing the US-Iran conflict and its impact on price developments. And even if there will be a spike in energy prices, they are likely to play that down as being “transitory”. Famous last words, eh?
