The best-case scenario in this war (for markets at least) is that Iran quickly folds.
Here are some estimates about how many missiles Iran has launched each day of this campaign.
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Day 1 (Feb 28) — ~350 Ballistic Missiles: Open-source intelligence confirms that on the first day alone, Iran fired at least 247 ballistic missiles at just three Gulf states: the UAE (~137), Qatar (~65), and Bahrain (~45). When you add the simultaneous barrages directed at Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, the aggregate total easily hits the ~350 mark.
Day 2 (March 1) — ~175 Ballistic Missiles: This drop-off is corroborated by regional defense reports. For context, the UAE Ministry of Defense reported a sharp decline in their sector on Day 2, intercepting around 20 ballistic missiles compared to the massive wave they faced on Day 1.
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Days 3 & 4 (March 2–3) — ~120 down to ~50: The continued decline to the “low dozens” is consistent with the reality on the ground. Extensive, coordinated US and Israeli strikes have been pounding Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters, weapons depots, and missile launch sites across Iranian provinces, severely degrading their operational capabilities and forcing a massive reduction in launch volume.
If you look at the trajectory, it’s pretty clear where it’s headed.
It’s pretty clear where this is headed as the US is able to quickly identify and counter-attack launch sites and neutralize them. That’s a good argument for why this war could quickly turn into a one-sided demolition.
The bad news is that Iran is a very large country and could be lying in wait and hiding large stockpiles for when the US relents.
Secondly, ballistic missiles are certainly not the only tool in the toolbox. Iran has drones, surely many thousands of them. It’s drones changed the battlefield in Ukraine and they’re easier to launch and more difficult to find. Again, the trajectory follows a similar path but it’s dropped off considerably. Are they hiding or severely degraded?
Before the war, they were estimated to have at least 80,000 of them.
No one knows what comes next but the declining number of launches is a better signal than the market is sending right now.
