The price of crude oil moved higher in trading today with a gain of $1.83 or 2.07% at $90.03. The high price extended to $91.84 help by geopolitical news out of the Middle East that the US would continue their bombings of Iran. The oil inventory data was also supportive with a crude oil inventory decline of -7.4 million barrels.
The move higher pushed the price back above its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart above) six, currently at $91.07 and $91.64 respectively. However, buyers were unable to build on that momentum, and the price has since rotated back to the downside. Buyers had their opportunity but failed to seize control. Sellers are still in play and control.
For the bias to shift back in favor of the bulls, the price needs to move above those key moving averages and stay above them. Until then, sellers remain firmly in the game. On the downside, the next key target comes in a swing area between $85.45 and $86.35. A break below that zone would strengthen the bearish case and open the door for a move toward the April low at $78.97.
If buyers can regain control and hold above the moving averages, traders will turn their focus to the downward-sloping trend line near $91.64, which continues to move lower over time.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions that might normally send oil prices sharply higher, the rally has been relatively restrained. The muted response suggests markets remain hopeful that a resolution—or at least a de-escalation—of the conflict may not be far away.
