Given the escalating tensions in the Middle East—including reports of an Iranian drone attack on an Apache helicopter and a subsequent U.S. retaliatory strike—one might have expected crude oil prices to surge. Instead, WTI crude is only modestly higher, up about $1.23 at $89.45, suggesting traders remain hesitant to aggressively price in a major supply disruption.From a technical perspective, the market remains vulnerable.
On the hourly chart above, the price continues to trade below the closely converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages (blue and green lines) between $91.28 and $91.58. If buyers are to regain control, they need to push the price above those resistance levels and, more importantly, keep it there. Oil has spent much of the month oscillating around those moving averages, but the fact that it currently remains below them keeps the near-term bias tilted to the downside.
At the same time, sellers have not yet delivered a decisive technical breakdown. Yesterday’s low found support just ahead of the rising 100-day moving average, currently at $85.97 (blue line on the chart below), while today’s low remains above the 50% retracement of the rally from the December 2025 low to the March 2026 high, which comes in at $87.23. Those levels represent important downside targets and support zones. A move below—and sustained trading beneath—both the 50% retracement and the 100-day moving average would strengthen the bearish case and give sellers firmer control of the market.
For now, despite the geopolitical backdrop, the inability of crude oil to reclaim the 100- and 200-hour moving averages argues for a modestly bearish bias. However, sellers would still like to see a break below the $87.23 retracement level and the rising 100-day moving average at $85.96 to confirm and extend that control.
