The EURUSD has been on its own rollercoaster ride today, plunging sharply lower before staging an equally impressive rebound during the North American session.
The initial selloff pushed the pair back below a key swing area between 1.1471 and 1.1482, a former resistance zone that had capped rallies since mid-June. That break triggered additional downside momentum, sending the pair to a session low of 1.1456.
The move lower, however, quickly unraveled.
Buyers stepped back in, driving the price back above the 1.1471–1.1482 zone and turning what looked like a bearish breakout into a failed break—a development that often forces sellers to cover and attracts fresh buyers. The subsequent move back above the 1.1500 level has added to the improving bullish tone.
Even so, the buyers still have work to do.
The rally has yet to clear the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the April high to the June low, which comes in at 1.1524. A sustained move above that level, followed by a break of yesterday’s high at 1.15356, would strengthen the bullish case and shift the focus toward the falling 100-day moving average at 1.15675.
On the other hand, if sellers defend the 38.2% retracement once again, the market could settle back into a familiar battleground. Support would be defined by the old ceiling-turned-floor between 1.1471 and 1.1482, while resistance remains at the 38.2% retracement near 1.1524. Until one side breaks those boundaries with conviction, traders may be left waiting for the next momentum-driven move.
