There are just a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.
The first is for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could line up together alongside bids near the figure level to keep price action just above for now. The downside pressure on the pair is mounting after the Friday selloff, with the dollar keeping in a good position as the US-Iran conflict rages on.
The overall risk mood is in a more defensive spot to start the new week and that will help to keep the dollar underpinned barring any major shifts in the narrative. So, dollar sentiment will be the number one driver but the expiries could factor into play in providing a bit of a floor to price action for the session ahead at least.
Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the 160.00 level. While sizable, the expiries may not have much of any impact as mentioned since last week.
The name of the game for USD/JPY now is all about intervention risks. At some point if the currency pair ventures too far above 160.00, you would figure that Japan’s ministry of finance will step in to try and knock price action back down.
The invisible hand is the key risk and biggest potential driver of price action, so I wouldn’t look to the expiries here as having much pull considering that the dollar is also keeping in a good spot since the end of last week.
It is now just a question of where will Japan draw the line on intervening next.
For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.
