Markets:
- Gold down $52 to $4481
- WTI crude oil up $5.16 to $92.52
- US 10-year yields flat at 4.45%
- S&P 500 up 0.26%
- GBP leads, NZD lags
War headlines continue to move the market. Early in the day, the angst built on strikes and retaliatory strikes. The peak came after a report in Iran’s semi-official media that said Iran had called off talks until the fighting stops in Lebanon. The report also said they would ‘activities’ activity in the Red Sea, though it wasn’t clear to what extent there would be a blockade.
Later, Trump had a long call with Netanyahu and then announced that Israel was halting strikes near Beirut. This came after reports that Hezbollah had offered a total ceasefire.
Afterwards, Netanyahu didn’t appear to take the ceasefire offer as he said that operations would continue in Southern Lebanon. That led to some late selling in stock markets.
In terms of economic data, the mood continued to improve along with the runaway bull market in stocks. The ISM manufacturing survey picked up and hit its best level since 2022, with the main caveat that the prices paid component remains extremely high.
In general, the market got bounced around on the Iran headlines, which is remarkable given that this is been ongoing for 13 weeks. EUR/USD sank to 1.1608 from 1.1645 on the early angst before bouncing to 1.1631 as the mood improved. The rest of the market followed a similar pattern.
WTI crude oil rose to $94.47 from $89.87 when Iran said it was halting negotiations. It later slipped back to $92.49 but finished the day nearly 6% higher.
