- Forward guidance is not good at this juncture
- On rate path, we don’t know how the economy will play out
- Hard to say the labor market has firmed
This comments strike me as disingenuous. The jobs market has certainly firmed in the last 3-4 months and the data has consistently pointed in that direction. At the same time, inflation has obviously increased as well.
I think there’s an increasingly-good trade in terms of risk-reward on the Fed falling behind the curve on inflation. There is a powerful mix of AI capex, fiscal spending, oil prices, low immigration and tariffs that are a recipe for persistent inflation above 2% and at some point the Fed will have to address it. Rates at current levels aren’t getting the job done.
More:
- Labor market is resilient, we’ve stabilized
- Most worrying today is getting inflation back to target, number one priority
So these further comments move her a tad towards the hawkish side.
