The USDCHF bottomed last week near a key cluster of support defined by the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, the 200-day moving average, and the 50% midpoint of the trading range from the June 2025 high. Those technical levels converged near 0.7908 and provided a strong foundation for buyers to regain control.
The move higher was fueled by the Fed’s more hawkish policy decision on Wednesday. The pair initially rallied toward a key swing area between 0.8009 and 0.8017 before correcting lower to find support near the 61.8% retracement of the same trading range at 0.79805. From there, buyers stepped back in aggressively, driving the pair higher and closing the week while testing the next upside target zone between 0.8084 and 0.81014.
This week, the pair has continued to trade with an upward bias despite some back-and-forth price action. Today’s high reached 0.8103, just above the top of that resistance zone, before rotating lower. The pair is currently trading near 0.8090.
The pullback suggests sellers are paying close attention to the 0.8084-0.81014 resistance area, but the buyers remain firmly in control for now. For sellers to begin shifting the bias back in their favor, they first need to push the pair below 0.8084 and then break beneath the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.8048. Until those levels are broken and remain broken, the path of least resistance remains to the upside and buyers continue to hold the technical advantage.
