Markets:
- Gold down $15 to $4605
- US 10-year yields up 2.3 bps to 4.16%
- WTI crude oil down $2.99 to $59.03
- AUD leads, GBP lags
- S&P 500 up 0.25%
US initial jobless claims underscored that the Fed has an opportunity to be patient in deciding its next move. Claims sub-200 is the first reading that low since the week ending Nov 1. Excluding that blip, it’s the lowest of the Trump administration. That helped to lift the US dollar on the day after left the euro at the lowest since Dec 1.
Rate cuts increasingly being priced out with April odds down to 37% in what will be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Fed chair. The less-dovish path has been a tailwind for the US dollar so far this year.
Those odds were helped along by oil prices, which fell nearly 5% as the Trump administration backed away from Iran strikes. That theme might not be over yet though as Israel’s Netanyahu reportedly asked Trump to delay strikes on Wednesday. The implication is that they could still be coming or the US could sail more force into the region first.
Precious metals are on track to finish the day nearly flat. That’s a decent bounce for silver as it finishes at $92 after falling as low as $86.33.
The stock market was less volatile today as tech stocks led early but were once again outpaced by the Russell 2000. A good chunk of that came from banks as they outperformed following earnings. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were particularly strong post-earnings.
