With gold now angling for a renewed push above $5,200, ANZ continues to argue for a more bullish rhetoric for the precious metal amid recent developments. Most of the overarching themes underpinning gold have been the same since last year, but ANZ is adding one more to the list. That being a “less crowded” investor positioning after the late January profit-taking round.
The firm notes that:
“Underlying fundamentals remain intact, as accommodative monetary policy has room to extend through to Q4 2026. We now expect the Fed to resume cuts in Q2 – likely June – and to add another cut in Q4, bringing the terminal rate down to 3% from the current 3.75%. This trajectory will support non-yielding gold.
Renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are set to revive haven demand for gold. And ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks suggest persistent volatility in the geopolitical backdrop. Economic risks linger, with markets yet to see the effects of increased US tariffs; and financial risks are mounting amid concerns around the AI-driven equity rally..
Amid these uncertainties, we believe gold remains a compelling hedge against market risks. Investor positioning is less crowded after the latest profit taking, leaving ample room for investors to build fresh long positions.”
