- Too soon to know how Iran war will affect inflation.
- Iran war impact could have monetary policy impact.
- Elevated headline inflation bears watching given recent inflation path.
- Had thought monetary policy was in a good place.
- Fed need to see how big and longer-range shock will be.
- Uncertainty about tariff outlook has increased.
- Doesn’t think the latest round of tariffs will have fresh inflation impact.
- Doesn’t seem much chance to substantially increase level of tariffs.
- Needs more data to know what Fed should do with rates this year
- The labor market is in a decent place.
- Fed has to hit 2% inflation target
- Strength of economy suggests higher neutral rate.
- Ahead of the Iran attack, Fed job inflation mandates felt more stable.
Bottom Line
Kashkari sounds data-dependent and cautious, but the emphasis on inflation risks and watching headline inflation carefully gives the comments a slight hawkish lean, rather than dovish.
At the most recent FOMC meeting on January 28, 2026, Kashkari voted with the majority to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
The decision was 10–2 in favor of holding rates steady, with two dissenters who preferred a 25 basis point rate cut.
Kashkari aligned with the consensus to pause, supporting the decision to leave policy unchanged rather than advocating for a hike or a cut at that meeting.
