- Prior was +2.4% y/y
- CPI +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
- Prior +0.2% m/m
- Non-seasonally adjusted, unrounded +0.47% vs +0.37% prior
- Core CPI 2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected
- Prior core 2.5%
- Core CPI +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
- Prior core +0.3%
- Real weekly earnings +0.1% vs +0.5% prior
This report is in-line with estimates right down the list so it’s no surprise that it’s not making waves in the market. The intriguing report will be the March one as it will include the Iran war price spike.
US CPI y/y
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, tracks the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. It is one of the most widely followed measures of U.S. inflation.
In January 2026, the CPI for All Urban Consumers rose 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, while the year-over-year rate came in at 2.4 percent — a meaningful deceleration from the 2.7 percent annual pace recorded in December 2025. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 2.5 percent year over year, its lowest reading since April 2021. Shelter costs, which make up more than a third of the index, rose just 0.2 percent for the month but remained the largest single contributor to headline inflation. Food prices edged up 0.2 percent, while energy declined 1.5 percent.
The January report was released on February 13, slightly later than originally scheduled due to disruptions from a partial government shutdown. Economists have noted that data from roughly December 2025 through April 2026 may carry a mild downward bias, because the 43-day shutdown prevented the BLS from collecting October 2025 price data, forcing the agency to rely on carry-forward estimates for that period.
The Federal Reserve, which had cut rates three consecutive times in late 2025, held steady at its January meeting. While the cooler-than-expected CPI print offered some encouragement, inflation remained above the Fed’s 2 percent target, keeping markets focused on the trajectory of monetary policy heading into spring.
