Mexico’s President said she helped to broker talks between the US and Cuba that are now confirmed.
Various reports said the talks have started and today Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed his government is holding talks with the Trump administration.
“These conversations have been aimed at seeking solutions through
dialogue to the bilateral differences that exist between our two
nations,” Díaz-Canel said.
Trump didn’t tweet directly about talks but posted an article citing talks on Truth Social.
The talks are only in the initial phase and Trump previously said they may or may not include “a friendly takeover” of the island.
Díaz-Canel said today that no fuel has entered the island in three months.
A report last week in USA today said the Trump admin is preparing an economic deal with Cuba that could be announced “soon”, citing two sources with knowledge. It would include a relaxation on Americans ability to travel to Cuba, which is something imposed by the American side.
Discussions have included an off-ramp for President Miguel Díaz-Canel,
the Castro family remaining on the island and deals on ports, energy and
tourism. The U.S. government has floated dropping some sanctions.
That sounds a bit like the kind of diplomacy that Trump used in Venezuela, with the threat of killing leadership if talks fail. Ultimately, it will depend on how badly Cuba wants to fight. It has a small (50,000 strong) regular military but depends on guerrilla fighting should the US attack. On the US side, they would likely be hoping to spark some kind of counter-revolution that they could arm.
In terms of markets, the impacts here are limited at first blush. If a conflict broke out, it could hurt tourism and cruise ships in the Caribbean and Cuba does have some resources including nickel but it’s hard to see macro impacts. In the bigger macro picture, another US shooting war would further boost the case for gold and hurt the US’ standing amongst allies, depending on the details.
