A bit of an update, with Kpler’s intel source Amena Bakr reporting on the matter. She says that “a number of LPG vessels crossed the strait yesterday and headed towards India”. Adding that “the strait is not closed, but the passage of vessels is tightly controlled by Iran and vessels need to seek permission before passing”.
I don’t believe that’s much of a change in the prevailing narrative. The Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure and there are no commercial vessels really willing to take up the risk to try and cross it. That unless one is able to get some assurance from Iran, and it seems like only India (and arguably China) to a certain extent has been able to.
Otherwise, any other ships with intended destinations elsewhere will not be granted passage at this time. That unless they go under the radar and brave the heavily guarded waters along the strait.
As things stand, oil prices are slowly creeping back up again today after the drop yesterday. WTI crude oil is up over 3% currently as market jitters are starting to return.
WTI crude oil 10-minute chart ($/bbl)
US president Trump is claiming talks but so far, Iran has denied that for the most part. I’m sure there has been some contact of sorts but Trump is definitely making it seem bigger than it is. We’ve seen this playbook before. It’s the exact same thing like when the US engaged on trade talks with China.
As for the delay on strikes, it might be a case that Israel is not going to abide by that. From earlier: Iran’s Fars report gas infrastructure hit as conflict broadens to energy assets
But whatever the noise may be on talks and peace, the most important thing is how things are progressing with the Strait of Hormuz. And from the latest development above, it doesn’t seem that much of anything has changed since last week.
