UK February retail sales -0.4% vs -0.7% m/m expected


  • Prior +1.8%; revised to +2.0%
  • Retail sales +2.5% vs +2.1% y/y expected
  • Prior +4.5%; revised to +4.8%
  • Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.4% vs -0.8% m/m expected
  • Prior +2.0%; revised to +2.2%
  • Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +3.4% vs +2.9% y/y expected
  • Prior +5.5%; revised to +5.9%

The drop here isn’t as bad as estimated, and that comes despite a positive revision to the January figures. Despite the monthly drop, UK retail sales remain decent in the past few months, with the less volatile three-month reading showing retail sales up 0.7% in the three months to February.

But when compared to the pre-pandemic level in February 2020, retail sales volumes are down 0.3% as of last month.

Looking at the details, the drop in February largely stems from a marked decline in sales in household goods stores (-2.6%). ONS attributes that to poorer weather conditions though, with retailers suggesting wet weather reduced demand.

Besides that, there were also declines in food store sales (-0.7%) and also textile, clothing, and footwear store sales (-1.0%). Non-store retailing also showed a decline of 0.5% on the month to add to that.

In any case, the landscape here will change significantly once we get to see more of the impact of higher energy prices come into play in the months ahead. So, just keep that in mind.

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