The USDCAD closed Monday at 1.3917. Although the pair pushed higher on Tuesday to a cycle high of 1.39658, that momentum could not be sustained. The price reversed lower, closing at 1.3907, and extended the decline today to a low of 1.3870.
On the move down, sellers were able to push below the rising 100-hour moving average, but downside momentum stalled ahead of key support. The price held above the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the March 23 low at 1.38525 and the rising 200-hour moving average at 1.38465. Those levels remain critical downside targets—break below them would be needed to tilt the bias more firmly in favor of the sellers.
However, today’s price action has shifted the tone back to the upside. Supported by stronger USD demand and rising oil prices, the pair rebounded and moved back above the 100-hour moving average (currently near 1.3906). Importantly, there have now been two successful retests of that level—first during the early European session and again in early North American trading—with buyers stepping in each time. That keeps the buyers in control in the short term.
On the topside, the next key target comes in at the swing area between 1.39246 and 1.39374. This zone has a long technical history—acting as resistance and support since August 2025—and remains a key barometer. The pair briefly broke above it earlier this week but failed to sustain momentum. A renewed break and hold above this area would strengthen the bullish case and open the door toward the next resistance zone between 1.3971 and 1.3984.
