The AUDUSD slipped below its 100-hour moving average at 0.68846 during the Asian session, and early attempts to hold below that level added a more bearish technical tone. However, downside momentum stalled near 0.6858, signaling a lack of follow-through from sellers.
As equities recovered, the pair rebounded and moved back above the 100-hour moving average, shifting the short-term bias. That recovery extended to the falling 200-hour moving average at 0.6917, where sellers once again leaned in, using the level as a clear risk-defining zone. The rejection there pushed the price back down toward 0.6900, with the low reaching 0.6903.
What next?
The 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below) remains the key barometer.
- Stay below: Sellers retain control, and rallies are more likely to be viewed as corrective within the broader March downtrend.
- Break above: A move through 0.6917 would give buyers more confidence and open the door toward the swing area between 0.6938 and 0.6956.
Above that zone, the next key target comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the March decline at 0.6968.
- Get above 0.6968: Signals a stronger shift in bias and raises the odds that a more durable low is in place.
- Fail to break: Keeps the broader bearish trend intact, with upside moves remaining corrective.
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