- Prior was 0.0% (revised to -0.5%)
- Durable goods orders ex-transport +0.8% vs +0.4% expected
- Prior ex-transport +0.4% (revised to +0.3%)
- Durable goods ex-defense -1.2% vs +0.5% prior (revised to +0.2%)
- Non-defense capital goods ex-air +0.6% vs +0.4% expected
- Prior +0.1% (revised to -0.4%)
This is a mixed bag. There are some pockets of strength but those are some poor revisions on core orders. Durable goods orders have now been down in four of the past five months but the one positive month (November) included a 5.4% gain.
On the shipments side, they came in at $319.2 billion in February, up 1.3% from a revised $315.1 billion in January. That’s three straight months of gains and the strongest reading in a while. The shipments number goes into GDP and points to a better number in Q1, though it won’t last if orders don’t pick up.
hat 1.3% gain was broad-based: primary metals up 2.3%, motor vehicles up 3.0%, machinery up 1.2%, electrical equipment up 1.6%. When you see that kind of breadth, it tells you the manufacturing sector is humming along better than the sentiment surveys would suggest.
Ex-transportation shipments rose 1.2% to $213.4 billion — again, nothing to complain about. On a year-to-date basis, total shipments are running 6.2% above last year.
February capital goods shipments ex-aircraft — the best proxy for business investment, and a number that goes into GDP — edged up 0.9%.
