Axios is out with a report saying that Iran has deployed more mines in the Strait of Hormuz, citing “a US official and a source with knowledge of the issue.”
That shines some light on Trump’s earlier post on Truth Social that said:
I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small
boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the
bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait
of Hormuz. There is to be no hesitation. Additionally, our mine
“sweepers” are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that
activity to continue, but at a tripled up level! Thank you for your
attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Oil prices rose for the third consecutive day and have erased the drop on the “Hormuz is open” message from Iran’s foreign minister. That optimism has faded as the US refused to unblock the Strait and so Iran resumed its blockade.
The chart itself now looks like it’s carving out the second shoulder in a head-and-shoulders pattern. If so, that would ultimately be good news and would point to a cratering of oil prices. That said, Vitol yesterday estimated that 600-700 million barrels of oil had already been lost in this conflict and it will ultimately take 1 billion barrels out because of slow restarts, even if the war ended soon.
WTI daily
Even with Iran and the rest of OPEC running at full speed, it would take a year or two to get inventories back to where they were pre-war. With that, it’s hard for me to see oil completing this pattern and falling to $60-65.
So the risk is that we run back above $100 as the physical market tightens. Iran doesn’t appear to be backing down at the moment. Today, a NYT report said that Mojtaba Khamenei was still alive and functioning, though he likely lost a leg and his face was burned. Knowing that, you have to imagine that he’s not exactly in the mood for compromise.
Combined with the mines report and the rhetoric out of Israel and this ceasefire is much more vulnerable that equity markets would have you believe.
