UK March retail sales +0.7% vs +0.1% m/m expected


  • Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.6%
  • Retail sales +1.7% vs +1.3% y/y expected
  • Prior +2.5%; revised to +1.8%
  • Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.2% vs 0.0% m/m expected
  • Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.6%
  • Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.7% vs +2.0% y/y expected
  • Prior +3.4%; revised to +2.7%

The reading is much better than expected but just note that the reporting period for the data above covers up until 4 April. ONS did so in order to include the pick up in activity from Good Friday, which fell on 3 April. So, there is that to take into account.

Fuel sales rose sharply on the month (+6.1%), so that also contributed heavily to the jump. That comes as no surprise as motorists are seen stocking up and heading to the pumps in order to catch the timing before the continued price jump from the ongoing US-Iran conflict. When you strip that out, the monthly retail sales number is less impressive but still a little better than estimated.

Food stores sales were soft (-0.8%) in March with the bulk of the improved retail sales coming from department stores (+1.1%), textile, clothing and footwear stores (+1.2%), and non-store retailing (+1.4%).

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