- Prior was 0
- Services index 9 vs 9 prior
- Manufacturing shipments -2 vs -2 prior
For background, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s monthly Survey of Manufacturing Activity is one of five regional Fed surveys closely watched as early reads on U.S. factory conditions, alongside the Empire State, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Kansas City surveys. Released on the fourth Tuesday of each month at 10:00 a.m. ET, it covers manufacturers in the Fed’s Fifth District — Maryland, the District of Columbia, Virginia, most of West Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina — drawing responses from roughly 100 to 190 plants. The headline composite index is a weighted average of three subindexes: new orders (40%), shipments (33%), and employment (27%). It is a diffusion index that ranges between +100 and -100, with positive readings signaling expansion and negative readings contraction. Markets watch the survey as a directional input for the national ISM Manufacturing PMI later in the cycle, and pay particular attention to its prices paid and prices received subindexes for early signals on goods inflation.
The March 2026 release, published March 24, showed Fifth District manufacturing activity essentially flat after a soft stretch. The composite index jumped 10 points to 0, ahead of consensus of around -8 and marking the first non-negative reading in over a year. All three components improved: shipments rose to -2 from -13, new orders flipped into positive territory at 4 from -9, and employment ticked up to -2 from -7. The local business conditions index also recovered, to -5 from -15.
Forward-looking measures were mixed but constructive. Future shipments and new orders eased slightly but stayed firmly positive, while the employment expectations index climbed to 14 from 6. On prices, the average growth rate of prices paid moderated, but prices received accelerated — a combination that suggests some firming in pass-through power even as input pressures cool.
