This ties back to the earlier headlines that the US is making some inroads to help guide ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. The UKMTO has confirmed that but reaffirms that security level in the Strait of Hormuz remains critical at this stage. That as ongoing regional military operations are still proceeding as per before. However, the US has at least established an enhanced security area to support some transit along the strait and this will be south of the TSS.
While the news may seem positive, let’s take a closer look on the map to see what this actually means.
It seems like they might have managed to reduce or deflect some Iranian presence in the supposed hazardous region. That being south of the usual TSS (circled area), not the one that Iran has established since the war started.
For some context, if any ships want to transit through the strait now then they have to obey Iran’s TSS but are almost certainly going to be turned back by the military. But if you want to secretly transit, then it will have to be through the hazardous area (lined box) at the risk of being shot by missiles/drones.
The UKMTO says that vessels choosing to transit with the US’ help should consider routing via Oman’s territorial waters south of the TSS. However, they also warn that mariners should expect increased naval presence, enhanced force protection postures, and potential VHF hailing if they are to proceed.
In essence, it doesn’t mean that we are going to see a strong uptick in terms of vessels transiting through the strait. It will be a slow trickle at best but considering the risks, it may not even be anything material. So, we’ll have to wait and see.
