The AUDUSD moved below a key swing area between 0.6896 and 0.69088 yesterday, shifting the bias more to the downside. That break gave sellers more control and opened the door for further downside probing.
In the early Asian session, the pair extended lower to 0.68707, but buyers stepped in, triggering a snapback rally. That rebound pushed the price back toward the broken swing zone, reaching 0.6912—just a few pips above the top of the area—but the move lacked follow-through. Sellers leaned once again, defending the prior support-now-resistance zone and rotating the price back lower.
In early North American trading, the pair has remained mostly below the 0.6896–0.69088 zone, keeping the sellers in control. However, downside momentum has stalled somewhat, with the session low at 0.68707 holding for now. That creates a near-term battleground.
What next?
If sellers can break and stay below 0.68707, the focus shifts to the 61.8% retracement at 0.68603 (from the December low to the March high). That level is a key technical target. A move below it would increase the bearish tilt and open the door to a more extended decline, where support becomes less defined and more momentum-driven.
On the topside, buyers would need to push the price back above 0.69088 to start neutralizing the bearish bias. Absent that move, rallies are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities.
In the video above, I walk through the AUDUSD technicals and highlight the key levels that are defining risk—and the next directional move.
