- New yuan loans ¥4.71 trillion vs ¥5.00 trillion expected
China’s new bank loans surged in January, as is typical of the new year. Looking back to 2025, this figure was ¥5.13 trillion in January last year. That said, the figure this time around misses on estimates but is still a big one in preparation of the Chinese New Year seasonal period.
For some context, it is always the case that the PBOC and Beijing authorities will try to ramp up liquidity ahead of February where we will typically see peak seasonal demand in China. That especially also to ensure enough funds are flowing amid the longer holiday break. As a reminder, Chinese markets will be closed after today and will only return back to business on 24 February.
Looking out to the year ahead, the big number to watch out for is ¥16.27 trillion as a cumulative total for the entire year. That was the total for new yuan loans in 2025, which already marked a second yearly decline since peaking in 2023. That will provide a better signal of credit conditions and domestic appetite, as Beijing continues to try and prop up the economy.
