Crude oil briefly fell below its 200-day moving average on Thursday ahead of the U.S. holiday but managed to close back above the key technical level. Today, the price climbed to a session high of $78.14 before reversing sharply lower. It is now trading near $73.67, essentially sitting on top of its 200-day moving average at $73.63. The low price reached $73.24.
From a technical perspective, a decisive break below the 200-day moving average — and more importantly, staying below it — would shift more control to the sellers and raise concerns for buyers that the recent rally is losing momentum. There is also still considerable room to the downside. Recall that crude closed near $67.04 on February 27, the day before the Iran conflict began on February 28.
The retreat in oil prices is already being reflected at the pump. The national average price for a gallon of gasoline has fallen to about $3.92, down from a peak near $4.56, although it remains well above the $2.98 average price that prevailed before the war started.
For perspective:
- February 27, 2026 (pre-war): $2.98/gallon
- March 16, 2026: $3.72/gallon (+25% from Feb. 27)
- March 26, 2026: $3.98/gallon (+$1.00 in one month)
- May 21, 2026 peak: $4.56/gallon
- June 18, 2026: $3.999/gallon after the Iran ceasefire/MOU and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
