The EURUSD attempted to move higher during the North American session, with the rally extending toward the 100-hour moving average, but sellers once again leaned against that key technical level and stalled the advance. As the session progressed, US yields moved back to the upside after inflation expectations in the University of Michigan sentiment survey came in higher, helping to support the US dollar and weigh on the pair.
The inability to break and stay above the 100-hour MA reinforces the near-term bearish bias for the EURUSD and the broader bullish bias for the USD. Over the last hour of trading, the pair rotated lower and extended to a new session low at 1.1589. Despite the move, the overall trading range remains relatively narrow, with only 33 pips separating the day’s high and low.
On the downside, the next key targets come in at this week’s lows near 1.1582 and 1.1575. A move below those levels would increase the bearish momentum and open the door for further downside probing.
For the week, the EURUSD reached a high near 1.1661 and a low at 1.1575, a range of just 86 pips. That is relatively narrow price action and reflects a market still searching for stronger directional conviction.
Even within that confined range, however, the bias has tilted more bearish. The pair has spent the last three trading days below the 50% midpoint retracement at 1.1645 of the rally from the late-March low, keeping sellers in firmer technical control. Buyers had opportunities earlier in the week, with moves above the falling 100-hour moving average on both Wednesday and Thursday, but they could not sustain momentum. Today, sellers once again leaned against that moving average, reinforcing it as a key resistance level and signaling that sellers are beginning to assert greater control over the short-term price action.
