- CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim
- Prior +1.7%
- HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim
- Prior +2.0%
The monthly change itself also shows a 1% increase in headline inflation, leading to the annual estimate to cross back above the 2% mark in April. Of note, energy prices once again picked up in recording a 4.7% increase on the month after jumping up by 8.9% in March. That is largely driven by the prices of petroleum products (diesel, petrol and liquid fuel), which were up by 8.2% in April.
As for the headline annual estimate, it is largely tied to the sharp acceleration in prices of energy (+14.3% compared to April last year).
The only bit of good news is that the impact hasn’t quite yet spilled over to core prices more meaningfully. That being said, core annual inflation did nudge a little higher to 1.2% in April. That is seen marginally higher than the 1.1% reading recorded in March the month before.
As higher energy prices start to bite, expect that to spill over to other parts in due time. Services inflation was already a touch higher in April, up to 1.8% from 1.7% previously. And as the prices for accommodation, transport, and airfares go up, expect that to translate to higher services prices in due time.
So long as the US-Iran conflict continues to drag on and higher oil and gas prices are here to stay, that will continue to lift broader price pressures in the euro area in the coming months.
