Iran is claiming a figure of 15 vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, with those ships said to have obtained permission from Tehran to cross the waterway. Of the 15 vessels, the Iran navy is saying that it includes 4 oil tankers.
Now, the issue here is that these may all still be “shadow fleets”. So, it is tough to ascertain which oil tankers these are and where their destinations will be. The same can be said for all the other vessels. As mentioned before, Iran may claim one thing but the reality i.e. actual shipping data tends to differ from that. We have seen that before in recent weeks.
So, why exactly is Iran doing this?
In part, it is perhaps to play to the optics in managing US expectations as we look towards a deal between the two sides. From before:
In any case, an average of 15-30 vessels in total per day is still an absolutely shambolic number when compared to the pre-war days. And even when you pair that to the roughly 3 ships per day that the US is reportedly sneaking through the strait, it’s not that much better.
And mind you, these are vessels that are bold enough to turn off their transponders to avoid detection. As a general rule of thumb, don’t expect this to apply to the majority of commercial vessels.
Even if the US and Iran are able to agree to a managed reopening of the strait, whether or not maritime insurance can be taken up again is still the number one obstacle. If ships are still not going to be insured when passing through the strait, it will be a risky game for many commercial vessels in passing through.
That especially as how things can easily fall apart again between the US and Iran, considering the puzzle pieces in play.
