Bloomberg reports:
Iran is considering a short-term pause to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and scuppering a fresh round of peace talks
They cited a person familiar with Iran’s deliberations.
At this point, I don’t think we need a headline to tell us the state of play. The S&P 500 is back to pre-war levels despite the loss of 400 million barrels of oil and a price shock.
A peace deal is probably 85% priced in and that continues to go up with S&P 500 futures up 19 points today.
I think there is still upside because the market is still digesting Anthropic’s Mythos model and a potential step-change in AI capability. Now these models are often over-hyped but at least this new one shows that there’s still enthusiasm and that kind of sentiment will drive more money into the space.
That said, software stocks rebounded yesterday in a big way. The IGV software ETF rose 5.4% in what might have been a short squeeze but it’s a return to the big question of whether AI will eat software.
WTI crude oil is down $2.69 to $96.43 and is essentially back to Friday’s closing level.
WTI crude May
Today’s economic data includes US PPI, the FOMC Minutes and comments from Daly and Waller.
Just now, the ADP weekly employment report was released and rose to 39,250. That’s the highest four-week average since the report was introduced in September.
