A ceasefire framework was reportedly agreed upon earlier today here. But as has been the case in the past, it doesn’t seem like it will be one to last. The latest communique from Israel is that they will continue fighting in southern Lebanon. And it won’t be the first time that Israel contradicts with what the US is trying to narrate. From earlier this week: Israel PM contradicts Trump, will continue operating against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon
As a reminder, the broader framework agreement between the US and Iran also hinges on this ceasefire. It is one of the four key terms that needs to hold in order for both sides to advance negotiations. As mentioned before here, the US saying that a ceasefire will happen may not mean anything because it is ultimately Israel’s call at the end of the day.
“Looking to Iran’s demands, the ceasefire in Lebanon will be a tough one to work out. Israel will not be part of this agreement and can act in bad faith to continue the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. And when that happens, will Iran call for an immediate break of the MOU then? Or can the US put a leash on Israel over the next two months? The April ceasefire clearly did not work in this regard, so we’ll see.”
For now, Iran continues to draw a red line on this matter. They want a clear promise with action that reinforces the ceasefire in Lebanon. Until that is brokered, they won’t be heading to the negotiating table. And so, the standoff continues to drag on.
