This is the findings from the latest Reuters’ poll on economists, involving the BOJ and the Japanese economy:
- Median forecast sees BOJ raising interest rates to 1.25% in Q4 (unchanged)
- 65% of economists anticipate policy rate to rise to 1.00% in June
- 74% of economists see currency intervention as unlikely to sustainably curb yen weakness
- 72% of economists see sustained inflation as being the bigger risk to the economy than demand slowdown
The pressure is certainly rising for Japan and Tokyo officials as the Middle East conflict drags on. The ministry of finance’s intervention efforts are not leading anywhere with USD/JPY now climbing back to 158.50. That is the highest level in two weeks, marking the time when they first intervened in the market this year.
The move higher in the currency pair has negated all the ammunition that they have thrown out during last week. There have been some minor hiccups here and there this week but they could be rate checks more than actual intervention on the part of Tokyo officials.
But as they struggle to go up against the market, is it about time that the ministry of finance turn to the BOJ for assistance?
Nomura argues that the BOJ would be inclined to raise rates in June in part to help address the upside risks that may arise from a further depreciation in the yen currency. However, several other economists from the poll above argue that the BOJ may want to hold off until there is more clarity from Middle East developments. That as the negative impact on the Japanese economy may be much greater than anticipated currently.
It’s a fine balance but the BOJ have only themselves to blame, after having had ample opportunities to deliver more rate hikes in the past year. And now, they are put in a very tough spot as the US-Iran war continues to play out for longer.
