The broader US stock indices remain solidly higher on the day, with the S&P up 2.10% and the NASDAQ up 2.54%, but the tone has shifted as upside momentum stalls and a tug-of-war develops between buyers and sellers. The rally ran into a technical ceiling ahead of the 100-day moving average in both indices, and that hesitation comes as cracks begin to show in the cease-fire narrative. Israel has continued strikes in Lebanon, arguing Hezbollah was not part of the agreement, while an Iranian security official warned those actions violate the cease-fire and could trigger a response. Adding to the uncertainty, the U.S. indicated Iran’s proposed 10-point peace plan differs from what President Trump described as a workable framework. The market has avoided a worst-case escalation scenario for now, but confidence in a lasting cease-fire is clearly being tested.
From a technical perspective, the S&P surged above its 200-day moving average (6654.85) and 50-day moving average (6767.66), but stalled just ahead of the 100-day moving average (6803.97), with a high of 6793.50. The pullback has since taken the price back below the 50-day MA (currently near 6754), which now becomes a key barometer. Holding below that level gives sellers a foothold, while a move back above—along with a break of the 100-day MA—would be needed to reassert buyer control.
The NASDAQ is showing a similar dynamic. The index gapped above both its 200-day moving average (22379.93) and 50-day moving average (22539.23), but also stalled ahead of its 100-day moving average (22905.67), peaking at 22821.21. The current price near 22577 keeps it just above the 50-day MA, although the earlier dip to 22501.28 briefly broke below that level before buyers stepped back in.
In both indices, buyers made the aggressive move higher, but the inability to break the 100-day moving averages has given sellers a level to lean against. That sets up a more balanced battle: stay above the 50-day MA keeps buyers in the game, while failure to reclaim the 100-day MA gives sellers the confidence to press back lower.
