I’d be very careful in trying to read the headlines that are doing the rounds at the moment. There are plenty of sources on social media echoing the same headlines that we’ve seen from earlier here:
The headlines are along the lines of “Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz without nuclear deal”. That is a very dangerous set of words without any context. So, be wary of that just in case.
As a reminder, the main point of the story is that Iran is reportedly proposing to offer a concession to the US in “reopening” the Strait of Hormuz with nuclear negotiations set for a later date. The proposal is meant to try and break the deadlock between the two sides now and argues for nuclear talks to only begin but only after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and the US lifts its naval blockade.
This whole thing is likely why Iran foreign minister Araghchi also visited Oman, to seek discussions in managing traffic and safe transit along the waterway.
But as a reminder, control over the Strait of Hormuz is still Iran’s number one leverage against the US at this stage. If they are to so easily give that up, they surely know they would be cornered in any negotiations after. As such, don’t expect this “reopening” to be one that sees movement along the strait return to normal.
If anything else, we’re likely to only see a more limited “reopening” and a conditional one where ship traffic is allowed to slowly pick up over time. And even then, we surely won’t see traffic return to what it was before the conflict started.
In any case, this “reopening” is also conditional on the US lifting its naval blockade. Otherwise, any “reopening” will quickly be off the table like what we saw before.
