The USD is moving higher today as the “good times” tone from the last two sessions reverses to the downside. Risk sentiment has shifted, and the flows are reflecting that change.
US yields are back on the rise, with the 10-year now up to 4.355% after testing the 4.25% level yesterday. That move higher in yields is helping to underpin the dollar.
At the same time, US stocks are under pressure. The Nasdaq traded down as much as 600 points at the lows and is still off sharply, currently down around 500 points. While the broader indices remain higher on the week, what had been shaping up as the best week since late November is now losing momentum.
In commodities, oil prices are surging. Crude has pushed above $109 and is now approaching the $110 level, with a high near $109.93. That continued strength reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions.
On that front, headlines remain a key driver. President Trump reiterated his desire to step back from the conflict within a couple of weeks. However, overnight developments told a different story, with Iran’s IRGC reportedly targeting US-linked metal facilities in Gulf states and warning that further actions would be “more painful.” There were also claims of strikes on US military bases, underscoring the ongoing risks.
Against that backdrop, the USD is behaving as expected. When risk sentiment deteriorates, the dollar tends to benefit, and that dynamic is playing out again today.
In the video above, I break down the technicals driving the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. In volatile markets like this, it’s critical to focus on the levels that define bias. Know where buyers turn to sellers, and sellers turn to buyers. Those levels define your risk, your targets, and ultimately your trade.
Because while the news can shift sentiment quickly, the technicals help you stay grounded.
