The focus today is firmly on the Federal Reserve, with the FOMC expected to leave rates unchanged when the decision is released at 2:00 PM ET. While the outcome itself is largely priced in, the significance of this meeting goes beyond the rate decision. It is expected to be the final meeting chaired by Jerome Powell, adding an element of transition risk and uncertainty for markets. Notably, there will be no updated economic projections—no central tendencies for GDP, CPI, or employment—and no dot plot, which puts even greater emphasis on the tone of the statement and Powell’s press conference for directional cues.
From a macro perspective, the backdrop has shifted. Higher oil prices and sticky inflation have pushed back expectations for rate cuts, even as a new Fed Chair is widely expected to lean more dovish over time. For now, however, the market is not buying into near-term easing. That skepticism is reflected in the rates market, where the 2-year Treasury yield—currently near 3.85%—remains above the Fed’s target rate of 3.75%, signaling that traders still see policy as restrictive and unlikely to be loosened in the near future.
It’s not just the Fed in focus today. The Bank of Canada will also announce its rate decision, with no change expected there as well. Meanwhile, the economic calendar is relatively full, featuring releases on durable goods orders, housing starts, building permits, trade data, and weekly oil inventories. While these reports can influence intraday sentiment, they are likely to take a back seat to central bank developments unless there is a meaningful surprise.
In the FX market, the U.S. dollar is trading modestly higher, but the moves remain contained. The USDJPY is leading the majors, though only marginally, with gains of around 0.14%. Meanwhile, EURUSD and GBPUSD are holding within well-defined technical ranges, as traders remain reluctant to take strong directional positions ahead of the Fed. The price action reflects a market in wait-and-see mode, with key support and resistance levels acting as a barometer for buyers and sellers into the event risk.
The video above breaks down those major currency pairs in more detail, highlighting the key technical levels, bias, and risk-defining zones that will guide traders once the Fed decision and Powell’s comments hit the wires.
