Trump is posting about ending the war and leaving the Strait of Hormuz for those impacted by the the closure to figure it out. Trying to solve problems, by creating problems is a theme lately, but we may be entering the blame game phase now.
Markets are leaning into the optimism—for now.
U.S. equities are higher:
- S&P +74 points
- Dow +530 points
- Nasdaq +259 points
At the same time, yields are moving lower, with the 10-year down -3.5 bps to 4.306%, after stretching as high as 4.48% on Friday. That pullback in yields is helping support the risk-on tone.
Crude oil remains elevated, holding just above $103 after peaking at $106.86 earlier today. Importantly, prices are back above $100, a level not sustained since 2022, keeping geopolitical risk firmly priced in.
In FX, the USD is moving lower, with key technical levels now in play:
- EURUSD: Testing a swing area between 1.1484 and 1.1491.
- Above = more bullish momentum, targeting the falling 100-hour MA near 1.1519
- Below = sellers stay in control
- GBPUSD: Pressing against resistance between 1.3217 and 1.3229
- Break above opens the door to 1.3272–1.3282, then the 100-hour MA at 1.3290
- USDJPY: Sellers gaining traction after failing near 160.00
- Broke below an upward sloping trendline and now back under the 100-hour MA at 159.63
- Staying below targets the 200-hour MA at 159.19, with further downside toward 158.89 and 158.55
Bottom line:
Risk-on sentiment is being driven by headlines, but the technicals are now at key inflection points. The next move will depend on whether these levels hold—or break—with conviction.
