Reuters is citing a source briefed on the matter:
- The VP has been talking to ‘intermediaries’ about the Iran conflict as recently as Tuesday
- Trump directed Vance to communicate privately that he is open to a ceasefire as long as certain US demands met including reopening Hormuz
- Vance delivered a ‘stern’ message that Trump was impatient and warned of growing pressure on Iran’s infrastructure unless Iran makes a deal
The headlines continue to point to some kind of stalemate. Trump keeps saying Iran wants a ceasefire but this report indicates that it’s Trump that wants a ceasefire.
Separately (and probably not coincidentally), Axios reports that three US officials said discussions are taking place about a possible ceasefire with Iran in return for the reopening of the Hormuz strait. The officials said it is unclear if a deal can be reached.
I think what’s overwhelmingly clear is that the US wants the war to end and is looking for a way to make that happen. They seemingly have Israel on board as well.
Iran seems to be angling for more than a ceasefire and a lasting peace instead. That might be splitting hairs but it’s also not clear who is in charge of Iran and what their next moves might be. It’s also curious that the US is sailing another aircraft carrier into the region and has ground troops ready to invade.
In all likelihood, Iran takes some kind of deal because leaders there have guns to their heads and they surely don’t want to risk the destruction of their energy industry. At the same time, it’s not clear what remaining offensive capabilities they have and their willingness to block Hormuz.
In any case, it’s a pivotal moment and the market is clearly optimistic. We’ll see if that optimism is well placed or not by late Monday.
This remains the deadline Trump set:
“As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to
represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10
Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time.”
WTI crude oil is down $2.50 to $98.88 and the S&P 500 is at a session high up 0.9%.
