- Second reading was 4.3%
- The final Q2 reading was 3.8%
- Consumer spending final 3.5% vs 2.5% prior
- Q3 corporate profits after tax +4.7%
- GDP final sales +4.5% vs +4.6% expected
Inflation metrics
- GDP deflator vs 3.8% expected
- Core PCE final vs 2.9% expected
- PCE prices final vs 2.8% expected
Real GDP for the third quarter was revised up to 4.4%. This compares to the initial estimate of 4.3% and the second quarter’s final reading of 3.8%.
Real GDP was boosted 0.1 percentage point from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upward
revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer
spending.The overall increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports,
government spending, and investment.
This is a stale report as we’re now three weeks beyond the fourth quarter now and pondering how that might look
Percentage point increases and decreases to GDP in the third quarter. yesterday, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker climbed to 5.4% from 5.3% but there are skeptics, in large part because the government shutdown punched a big hole in the data.
Contributions to GDP in percentage points:
- Government +0.38
- Net exports +1.62
- Inventories -0.12
- Fixed investment +0.15
- Services +1.7 (health care alone was +0.75 pp)
- Goods +0.64
