- Global growth forecast seen at 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged), 3.0% in 2027 (previously 3.1%)
- US growth forecast seen at 2.0% in 2026 (previously 1.7%), 1.7% in 2027 (previously 1.9%)
- Eurozone growth forecast seen at 0.8% in 2026 (previously 1.2%), 1.2% in 2027 (previously 1.4%)
- China growth forecast seen at 4.4% in 2026 (unchanged), 4.3% in 2027 (unchanged)
- UK growth forecast seen at 0.7% in 2026 (previously 1.2%), 1.3% in 2027 (unchanged)
- Japan growth forecast seen at 0.9% in 2026 (unchanged), 0.9% in 2027 (unchanged)
For some context, the latest forecast shows that global growth is expected to ease from the 3.3% estimate last year as the US-Iran conflict is set to see energy prices surge for an extended period of time. The OECD noted that the world economy had been on course for stronger-than-expected growth in the early months this year but that is now all out the window after the Middle East developments.
Had it not been for the war, the OECD could have revised higher the global growth estimate by 0.3% in 2026.
Do keep in mind that the main caveat to the forecasts above is conditional on the technical assumption that the energy market disruption will moderate over time. That as the OECD anticipates oil and gas prices to decline gradually from the middle of this year onwards.
Amid the latest surge in energy prices, the OECD also projects G20 inflation to surge to 4.0% in 2026. That is some 1.2% higher than their previous projection. After which, inflation is expected to ease back to 2.7% in 2027.
