- Prior month 0.5% MoM and 4.0% YoY
- Prior month ex food and energy 0.1% MoM and 3.8% YoY
- PPI MoM 1.4% versus 0.5% estimate
- PPI YoY 6.0% versus 4.9% estimate
- PPI ex food and energy MoM 1.0% vs 0.3% estimate.Highest since March of 2022.
- PPI ex food and energy YoY 5.2% vs 4.3% estimate
- PPI ex food, energy and trade MM +0.6% vs +0.2% last month
- PPI ex food, energy and trade YoY 4.4% vs 3.6% last month
- Services inflation was up 2.5%
The two year yield has moved above the 4% level to 4.010% 1.5 basis points. The 10 year yield is up 1.7 basis points at 4.488%. Both were mostly lower at the start of the North American session.
The S&P index is trading down -1.71 points in premarket trading. It was up about 21 points at the start of the North American session. The NASDAQ index is still up around 95.7 but down from being up over 200 points earlier in the US session. The Dow is down -220 points.
Five year inflation expectations is up to 2.7% from a more normal 2.2%. That is starting to tick to the upside.
The combination of the CPI and the PPI will lead to a rise in the PCE, the favored inflation
The probability of a Fed hike in April is now up to 59%. Kevin Warsh is coming into a difficult situation. There are no cuts priced in any time soon. That will not sit well with Pres. Trump.
