The USDCAD pushed up to and through the 50% midpoint of the trend-like decline from the March 31 high last week, with that key level coming in at 1.37576. On Friday, the pair extended to 1.37665 before rotating lower and ultimately closing back below the midpoint level — a sign that buyers could not sustain momentum above an important technical barometer.
At the start of the new trading week, buyers made another run higher during the Asia-Pacific session, briefly moving back above the 50% retracement level. However, the rally once again stalled ahead of Friday’s high, peaking near 1.3763 before rotating back to the downside. The market has now tested the upside above the 50% midpoint on two separate occasions, and both attempts have failed. That repeated rejection keeps the focus squarely on the sellers’ ability to defend the level.
The move lower has since taken the pair down toward 1.3733. While the price remains relatively close to the 50% retracement level, it is also now approaching an important support cluster defined by the 100-day moving average at 1.3720 and the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.3722. Those levels represent an important near-term battleground. If sellers can push below that support zone and keep the price below it, the focus would then shift toward the next key target area between 1.3708 and 1.37149 — home to the 38.2% retracement and a prior swing-area ceiling. A break below those levels would tilt the technical bias back in favor of the sellers and increase downside momentum.
That said, the recent pullback may simply represent a pause after the strong recovery rally from the May 1 low. Buyers are still very much in the game, but after two failed attempts above the 50% retracement level, the technical roadmap has become clearer: buyers now need to get and stay above 1.37576 to regain control and build upside momentum.
As the saying goes: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” After two failed breaks above the midpoint level, traders are less likely to blindly chase the upside without proof of sustained buying momentum. The battle lines are now clearly drawn heading into the new trading week.
