The USDCHF has moved lower today as the market rotates back toward support following last week’s strong rally. The pair began its move higher from 0.7747 on Tuesday and extended to a peak of 0.7922 yesterday, stalling just short of the 61.8% retracement at 0.79242. That failure near a key Fibonacci level helped trigger the current pullback.
On the downside, the correction has brought the price back toward a critical confluence zone near 0.7825, where the 50% retracement and the rising 100-hour moving average converge. This area now serves as the key short-term barometer. Holding above it would keep buyers in control and open the door for another push toward the 61.8% retracement. Conversely, a break below would tilt the bias back to the downside, with the rising 200-hour moving average at 0.7824 (and climbing) as the next target. A move below that level would strengthen bearish momentum and shift control to sellers.
Fundamentally, both the SNB and the Fed are set to meet this week, with no changes in rates expected. At its last meeting in December, the SNB left its policy rate unchanged at 0%, emphasizing that policy remains sufficiently accommodative despite low inflation. Inflation is seen as subdued but within the price stability range, limiting the urgency for further easing. Importantly, the SNB reiterated that FX intervention is its primary policy tool to manage Swiss franc strength, rather than additional rate cuts. Policymakers also stressed that the bar for a return to negative rates is high, reinforcing a patient, data-dependent stance.
The SNB rate decision will be announced on Thursday at 4:30 AM ET.
