EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a few low tier releases like the French trade balance, construction PMIs and Eurozone retail sales. The data won’t change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will likely be muted.
The focus today will be on Iran as it’s expected to deliver a response via Pakistani mediators to US’s war-ending proposal. Trump said that if Iran doesn’t accept the deal, the bombing will restart at a much higher level. He also added later that it will likely take a week to finalise the deal, so the timing is not exactly clear (as usual with Trump).
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, the main highlight will be the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 205K vs 189K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1800K vs 1785K prior.
The US jobs data has been really good lately, with even signs of reacceleration. The US initial claims last week fell to a 57-year low, while continuing claims fell to the lowest level since April 2024.
Needless to say that US-Iran headlines will continue to dominate the price action but we are also reaching a point where the economic data will start influencing the Fed’s stance, and the direction is not towards more rate cuts.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
- 07:15 GMT/03:15 ET – ECB’s Villeroy (neutral – voter)
- 07:15 GMT/03:15 ET – ECB’s de Guindos (neutral – voter)
- 12:40 GMT/08:40 ET – ECB’s Lane (neutral – voter)
- 17:00 GMT/13:00 ET – Fed’s Kashkari (hawkish – voter)
- 17:00 GMT/13:00 ET – ECB’s Schnabel (neutral – voter)
- 18:05 GMT/14:05 ET – Fed’s Hammack (hawkish – voter)
- 19:30 GMT/15:30 ET – Fed’s Williams (neutral – voter)
