The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts.
In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.
CPI Y/Y
- 4.0% (2%)
- 3.7% (2%)
- 3.5% (5%)
- 3.4% (37%) – consensus
- 3.3% (33%)
- 3.2% (7%)
- 3.1% (2%)
- 3.0% (5%)
- 2.6% (5%)
- 2.4% (2%)
CPI M/M
- 1.7% (2%)
- 1.5% (2%)
- 1.2% (2%)
- 1.1% (3%)
- 1.0% (38%) – consensus
- 0.9% (33%)
- 0.8% (13%)
- 0.7% (2%)
- 0.6% (3%)
- 0.4% (2%)
Core CPI Y/Y
- 3.0% (2%)
- 2.8% (12%)
- 2.7% (65%) – consensus
- 2.6% (21%)
Core CPI M/M
- 0.4% (17%)
- 0.3% (61%) – consensus
- 0.2% (22%)
Given the focus on the negotiations and the fact that an increase in March is widely because of the war, the market will likely look through today’s data as everything hinges on the US-Iran talks anyway. We can see there’s a huge dispersion in forecasts for the headline CPI, but a more contained view on Core CPI as it excludes food and energy prices.
The Fed is in a hard neutral stance but has opened the door for potential tightening in case inflation expectations start to drift higher and the war drags on longer than expected. The market is pricing in 7 bps of easing by year-end, so there’s no rate hike or rate cut expected in 2026.
