- Prior +2.9%
- HICP +2.7% vs +2.8% y/y expected
- Prior +2.9%
- Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.3% prior
The German states inflation readings released earlier in the day were much lower than the prior month, so a notable miss on the national measure was expected. The German Core CPI Y/Y rose to 2.5% from 2.3% prior.
That’s due to a pullback in energy prices but the ECB is more focused on underlying inflation pressures and the risk of second-round effects if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz persists longer than expected.
As a reminder, the ECB is widely expected to deliver an “insurance” 25 bps rate hike in June and pause at least until September to see how the data and the US-Iran situation evolves over the summer.
