The USDJPY has broken above the 2024 high near 161.95/97 (depending on the data source), and the breakout has been accompanied by strong buying momentum. The pair initially surged to 162.399 before rotating lower, but buyers stepped in at 162.04—just 7 to 9 pips above the breakout area—confirming the old resistance level as new support.
Later in the North American session, the pair pushed to a fresh high of 162.508 before another sharp pullback took the price to 162.025. Once again, buyers quickly entered, driving the pair back above 162.30, where it has remained firmly supported.
The rebound has since extended to a new intraday high of 162.656 as London and European traders head for the exits, highlighting the market’s underlying bullish bias.
From a longer-term perspective, the next major upside target comes in near the November 1986 high at 164.50. A sustained move above that level would open the door for an even stronger upside extension and could trigger another wave of momentum buying.
What would hurt the bullish bias is now?
If the price cannot moved below the 161.92 up to 162.04 (see yellow area on the chart), and stay below, the sellers are not winning. That would be the first target. Below that, and the 100 hour MA and the 200 hour MA at 161.87 and 161.66 respectively would need to be broken and stay broken to break the back of the buyers.
The squeeze is still on for the USDJPY. Yes, there may be a fast move lower at some point from intervention, but until then and until the aforementioned support target levels are broken, shorts will feel the pain.
