Crude oil is settling down $1.25, or 1.77%, at $69.50. The high price for the day reached $71.60, while the low has been extended to $69.22 in the current hour.
Recall that on Monday and Tuesday, buyers pushed crude higher to test the falling 100-hour moving average. Although the price briefly traded above that level on several hourly bars, the breakout lacked follow-through and quickly reversed. Sellers, however, were unable to capitalize, leaving the market trapped in a relatively tight range.
That changed during the North American session today. Crude climbed back above the 100-hour moving average near $70.40, sparking another round of buying that carried the price to a session high of $71.60. But once again, the buyers could not sustain the momentum. Over the last several hours, the market has reversed sharply lower, fallen back below the 100-hour moving average—now at $70.21—and extended to a new session low.
The buyers had their shot—and they missed.
From a technical perspective, the failed break above the 100-hour moving average keeps the sellers firmly in control. To shift the near-term bias back in favor of the bulls, crude would need to move back above the 100-hour moving average and, more importantly, stay above it. Even then, there is more work to do.
The next upside targets come in at the 200-hour moving average at $72.29 and the 200-day moving average at $73.88. Buyers would need to reclaim both levels to signal that they are beginning to regain control following the sharp decline from the June 3 high near $96.86. Until that happens, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective moves within a broader bearish trend.
On the downside, support comes in at last Friday’s low of $68.56. A break below that level would have traders looking toward the February 27 closing price of $67.28—the last settlement before the start of the Iran conflict.
Meanwhile, gasoline prices continue to attract attention. National average gasoline prices stood at $2.98 per gallon on February 27. According to AAA, the current national average is $3.84 per gallon. As crude prices have fallen, I have been paying close attention to the spread between crude oil and gasoline prices. There is always some lag in how lower crude prices filter through to the pump, but it is an issue that has also caught President Trump’s attention, highlighted by his recent Truth Social post:
Trump cannot say that gas prices are down – a campaign promise. In fact, at the end of the Biden term and the start of Trump’s 2nd term, the price of a gallon was $3.11. So he is losing all around on his lower oil price promise.
