The GBPUSD has experienced a two-way trading session today. After rallying into the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the June 15 high at 1.32629 yesterday, the pair initially rotated back down, extending down to test the 200-hour moving average (the green line on the chart above). Buyers leaned against that key risk-defining level, sparking a rebound during the North American session.
The recovery pushed the price through the 38.2% retracement on the 2nd attempt, reaching a session high of 1.3276. However, the breakout lacked follow-through. Sellers stepped back in, driving the pair back below the 38.2% retracement level.
From a technical perspective, reclaiming the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages is a modest positive for the buyers. However, the broader price action still reflects a series of lower highs and lower lows, leaving the sellers with the overall technical advantage.
To shift that bias, buyers need to do more than simply move above the moving averages. They must also reclaim—and importantly, hold above—the 38.2% retracement level. Today’s attempt failed, reinforcing that sellers remain in control for now. Traders looking for further upside will want to see a sustained break above that retracement level before gaining confidence that the buyers are beginning to wrest back control.
If they cannot do that, a run back lower to the now converged 100 and 200 hour MAs would be the downside target.
